How Brazil’s FX Volatility Enhances Carry Trade Returns
Key Takeaways • Brazil’s unique combination of high interest rates and cyclical FX volatility amplifies carry trade returns for global investors. • FX swings can increase total return when the real appreciates or stabilizes after risk events. • Brazil’s central bank independence and inflation-targeting regime strengthen long-term carry opportunities. • Risk premiums tied to global liquidity cycles make Brazil one of the most attractive EM carry markets. • For U.S. investors, timing, hedging, and macro interpretation determine risk-adjusted performance. Executive Summary Brazil has long been one of the world’s most attractive destinations for the carry trade. The reason is simple: the country consistently maintains higher interest rates than developed markets, and this yield differential—combined with the behavior of the Brazilian real—creates outsized opportunities for global investors seeking excess returns. Unlike low-volatility currencies such as the Japanese yen or U.S. do...